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Os números do Campeonato Brasileiro 2019
Após o encerramento do 1º turno do Campeonato Brasileiro, as probabilidades de cada clube ser campeão, chegar à Libertadores, à Copa Sul-Americana ou ser rebaixado para a Série B são as seguintes:
Os números apresentados nas colunas “Libertadores” e “Sul-Americana” se referem às atribuições padrão de vagas, previstas no regulamento do Campeonato Brasileiro da Série A: 6 para a Libertadores (1º ao 6º colocados) e 6 para a Sul-Americana (7º ao 12º colocados). É importante destacar, entretanto, que dependendo de quem sejam os campeões das Copas do Brasil (Athletico Paranaense), Libertadores e Sul-Americana em 2019, a zona de classificação para a Libertadores-2020 pode se tornar um G-7, G-8 ou até G-9, com as vagas na Sul-Americana-2020 ficando para os seis times subsequentes na classificação do Campeonato Brasileiro.
Mesmo considerando essas hipóteses e lembrando que ainda temos meio campeonato pela frente, essa tabela já permite visualizar uma divisão dos clubes, de acordo com os principais horizontes de cada um:
- Flamengo: virtualmente garantido na Libertadores e principal favorito à conquista do Brasileirão;
- Palmeiras e Santos: dificilmente ficam fora da Libertadores. São as principais ameaças ao Flamengo na briga pelo título;
- Internacional, Corinthians, São Paulo, Bahia e Grêmio: brigando diretamente por vagas na Libertadores e ainda sonhando com a possibilidade de ser campeão;
- Atlético Mineiro e Botafogo: podem ainda chegar à Libertadores (no caso do Galo, a via mais provável –em que pese a derrota para o Colón no confronto de ida da semifinal– é a Copa Sul-Americana) e dificilmente caem para a Série B;
- Athletico Paranaense: está apenas esperando o ano acabar (já está na Libertadores por ter sido campeão da Copa do Brasil e tem chances remotas de título e/ou rebaixamento);
- Vasco, Ceará e Fortaleza: fora da disputa do título, chances remotas de chegar à Libertadores, brigam diretamente por vagas na Sul-Americana e correm pouco risco de rebaixamento (mas convém não descuidar);
- Goiás, Fluminense e Cruzeiro: brigando diretamente contra o rebaixamento e ainda com chances de chegar à Sul-Americana;
- CSA, Chapecoense e Avaí: grande risco de rebaixamento, precisarão trabalhar muito para se salvar.
Confira, em breve, no Chance de Gol, uma análise mais detalhada das probabilidades associadas a cada hipótese (G6, G7, G8, G9 etc).
Essas estatísticas, ficam completamente fora de foco quando o time que tem apenas 3.3, não faz muito tempo, era o líder, e se vencer duas e o Flamengo perder uma, as coisas nunca fecham. Voces deviam parar de mostrar isso, porque no futebol o jogo só termina quando acaba.
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