A atual edição do Campeonato Brasileiro é a mais equilibrada dos últimos anos. Desde 2006, quando o Brasileirão passou a ser disputado por 20 clubes, a briga pelo G4 (que dá acesso à Libertadores) sempre foi bastante acirrada, mas não como em 2015.
Após 31 rodadas, sete equipes ainda continuam firmes na briga pelo quarto lugar. Apenas três pontos separam o quarto colocado, Santos (49 pontos conquistados), do nono colocado, o Sport (46 pontos conquistados). Atrás da equipe de Pernambuco ainda está o Flamengo, com 44 pontos, cinco a menos que o Santos, um pouco mais distante do “bolo”, portanto.
Palmeiras, São Paulo, Internacional e Ponte Preta completam a lista dos aspirantes à quarta vaga.
Palmeiras, Santos e São Paulo, serão os clubes que sofrerão um desgaste físico maior. Além do Brasileirão, os times estão envolvidos na semifinal da Copa do Brasil. Nesse momento, ter um elenco mais qualificado pode fazer diferença. Acredito que o Palmeiras possa levar vantagem nesse quesito, e mostrou isso na última rodada, quando enfrentou o Avaí, fora de casa, atuando com um time misto, e conseguiu a vitória. Já o Santos é o time que, na teoria, enfrentará os adversários mais “tranquilos”. É o único que jogará contra clubes que estão atrás dele na classificação. O único confronto direto será diante do Palmeiras e jogando em casa, na Vila Belmiro. Do trio paulista, o São Paulo é o que tem a tabela mais complicada. Enfrentará dois adversários que estão mais bem colocados (Corinthians e Atlético Mineiro), além de jogar contra o Sport, adversário direto na briga pela vaga.
A Ponte Preta é o time, dentre esse (nem tão) seleto grupo, que vive o melhor momento na competição. Nos últimos sete jogos, foram seis vitórias e um empate. A Macaca conseguiu resultados importantíssimos, vencendo, por exemplo, Palmeiras e Atlético Paranaense fora de casa, o Santos em Campinas e empatando com o líder Corinthians. A Ponte vai jogar quatro jogos fora e três em casa. Dos jogos como visitante, enfrentará três adversários difíceis: Atlético Mineiro, Internacional e Flamengo.
O Internacional é outro time que pode vir a surpreender. Apesar da irregularidade, a equipe de Porto Alegre conseguiu permanecer na disputa e terá pela frente alguns jogos teoricamente mais fáceis que alguns dos seus concorrentes. O jogo chave para o Colorado é o clássico diante do Grêmio, que deve definir o futuro do time na competição.
Acredito que o Sport seja o clube com maiores dificuldades pelo tão desejado quarto lugar. Das sete partidas restantes para a equipe pernambucana, cinco serão contra adversários que estão à sua frente, entre eles Palmeiras e São Paulo. Tais confrontos poderiam ser favoráveis se fossem em casa, mas até isso pesa contra o time de Pernambuco, já que diante dessas duas equipes paulistas, nas duas próximas rodadas, o Sport jogará fora de sua arena.
A briga promete ser boa! A disputa por uma vaga na Libertadores de 2016 deve ir até a última rodada.
Façam suas apostas. Quem classifica?
Vai Ponte!
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